Oversight of Government Spending on Combating Covid-19
Application of the Newcomb-Benford Law In Public Expenditure Execution
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.16930/2237-766220243518Keywords:
Fraud, Pandemic, Covid-19, Newcomb-Benford's LawAbstract
The research aims to analyze the federal government's expenditures in 2020 and 2021 related to combating the COVID-19 pandemic in search of fraud indicators. This period was characterized by a sudden increase in public spending, accompanied by less stringent procurement processes. The Newcomb-Benford Law describes the frequency of leading digits in datasets and is presented as an effective tool for identifying anomalies and fraud in financial records, being widely explored in various fields, particularly in audits and accounting. A comparison was made between the observed and expected frequencies for the first, second, and first two digits of the committed values, segregated by year or procurement method. The analysis was conducted through graphs and statistical tests to verify the adherence of distributions to the Newcomb-Benford Law. Commitments made in 2020 showed better adherence than those in 2021, suggesting a higher probability of manipulations or fraud in the second year of the pandemic. Additionally, expenditures resulting from bidding processes were more compliant when compared to non-bid expenditures, confirming the perception that there is a higher likelihood of manipulation or fraud in non-bid spending. The research reveals indications that can be interpreted as warnings for oversight and control bodies, with the proposed approach serving as a mechanism for auditing government expenditures, assisting in the selection of samples that require detailed analysis by auditors and investigator.
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